August Trading

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60 Posts
Martin Mcfarlane posted this 31 August 2012 (Aug 31, 2012 5:23 PM).
 
This quote came up today on GS Elevator think it sums up Bernake and the markets reaction today  "If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit."
513 Posts
Anton Kreil posted this 31 August 2012 (Aug 31, 2012 5:14 PM).
 
Personally im not shocked at all he didnt do anything. However there were probably 50% "hopes" out there that he would. So irrational excuberance continues. It seems Draghi holds the key to the future. I'm filled with confidence :-)
0 Posts
posted this 31 August 2012 (Aug 31, 2012 3:23 PM).
 
Ben disappoints, market sells off, then pares all losses. Another bear hope trade gone wrong? Gold all over the shop.
0 Posts
posted this 31 August 2012 (Aug 31, 2012 12:41 PM).
 
looks like minor 4 completed as a flat yesterday with market ripping in parts today. too much event risk to take any position ahead of the FED but one scenario that would confirm my scenario below would be Ben pleases, Draghi disappoints (hands tied) lets start a Sep Trading thread?
0 Posts
posted this 31 August 2012 (Aug 31, 2012 12:35 PM).
 
trade ideas always welcomed,. its up 100% in 2 weeks though, what makes you think there is more to come? missed the boat, no?
23 Posts
pete smith posted this 31 August 2012 (Aug 31, 2012 10:50 AM).
 
Gents I am not a spammer but I found a trade to share with you all that has 30 to 50 percent upside   Check ot Wnd on the TMX or you can also buy it in the usa Go to stockhose and other fourms to read up om the opp if you are at all intrested
0 Posts
posted this 30 August 2012 (Aug 30, 2012 1:33 PM).
 
i think they are trying to say that bonds are expensive rather than stocks are cheap
513 Posts
Anton Kreil posted this 30 August 2012 (Aug 30, 2012 12:00 PM).
 
Citigroup Strategy Outlook (from this morning);- The rise of equity dividend yields above local bond yields is a global theme and a historic event. It also offers a wonderful opportunity for equity product marketers to bring capital back into the asset class. However, the case for buying equities on this argument is questionable. Investors should buy equities because they think current dividend yields offer reasonable returns, not because they look 2.4 standard deviations cheap against bonds. We suspect that equity income strategies will continue to attract capital flows. This may drive further outperformance for high-yield stocks. But investors should be aware that the underlying arguments for outperformance here are becoming less convincing. High-yield stocks no longer look especially cheap compared to the rest of the market and the scope for further helpful drops in bond yields may now be limited. Of course, the long-term case for value strategies is well proven, but we wonder whether buying high-yield stocks right now offers such a good opportunity for outperformance. The current case for global equities looks reasonable, especially on a long-term basis. The current relative case for global high yield equities looks less convincing.
0 Posts
posted this 29 August 2012 (Aug 29, 2012 10:18 PM).
Primary scenario as posted before is a top in first week of september. Personally think we have finished the yellow 4 and should be completing the uptrend after Labor day Its the same old game. CB promises, market decide when where and how much, CB doesnt deliver according to market expectations, bang sell off, then delivery. However, I am de-risking more heavily than usual because there is a some probability, albeit small at this stage, that we could be heading into something more sinister so I prefer to adopt the wait and see approach. At the moment the scenario attached is a 60% probability for me. A retest of the May lows is 20% and a bull market extension is 20%. The bull market is over is <1%.
552 Posts
Jason Else posted this 29 August 2012 (Aug 29, 2012 5:45 PM).
 
Agree entirely. In the past 10 days I have taken profits in all my speculative longs after a good 2.5 month run.  Am now net short for first time in 3 months. Portfolio now positioned very defensively. Running food, waste and housing related longs. Short high P/E, retail and starters in chems. Also allocated some capital to bonds. Pension wise I'm long UK utilities only.

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