September Trading

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552 Posts
Jason Else posted this 16 October 2012 (Oct 16, 2012 3:12 PM).
Anthony.. Lower lows?  But the uptrend is intact! Attached SPX chart from June.. we obviously see different things...
75 Posts
Anthony Walters posted this 16 October 2012 (Oct 16, 2012 9:14 AM).
 
I stand corrected (thanks Anton). That'll teach me to post late at night after a long day...
513 Posts
Anton Kreil posted this 16 October 2012 (Oct 16, 2012 7:08 AM).
 
It was Long Hang Seng / Short S&P500 and within U.S. mostly defensive longs over Earnings season.
75 Posts
Anthony Walters posted this 15 October 2012 (Oct 15, 2012 10:19 PM).
 
e.g. one of the first positions mentioned on this week's trader meeting is short S&P 500.
75 Posts
Anthony Walters posted this 15 October 2012 (Oct 15, 2012 10:09 PM).
 
Some were bearish, some are staying out of the market and in cash predicting an October downturn. Since 26th September the S&P 500 has paused and made lower lows for example.
552 Posts
Jason Else posted this 15 October 2012 (Oct 15, 2012 6:03 PM).
 
Long again?  The uptrend was never broken. Remaining net long and have been positioned this way since June. Other leading economic indicators have been pointing North since May. Dangerous to look at single PMI figures in isolation.
75 Posts
Anthony Walters posted this 15 October 2012 (Oct 15, 2012 4:54 PM).
 
AAII sentiment has turned more bearish. Coupled with positive PMI data it could be time to start looking long again.
552 Posts
Jason Else posted this 15 October 2012 (Oct 15, 2012 12:16 AM).
 
Everyone getting bearish again. I'm actually favouring some Long China exposure at the moment....
3 Posts
Yuan Long posted this 12 October 2012 (Oct 12, 2012 7:59 AM).
 
SPX correction ?
0 Posts
posted this 09 October 2012 (Oct 9, 2012 8:47 AM).
progress report on apple. nailed the top to the day and reposting the chart, its downtrending exactly to schedule. seeing a host of negative stories on bbg such as "Bearish bets on Apple increase in options market" and suspect we will hear a litany of commentators claim apple is done here over the next couple of weeks. I take another view in that we are already in the mania phase and I am expecting a blow off up to 800-1000 on the next few earnings reports. The accumulation zone for this stock as mentioned before is between 596-616, any lower than that and something weird is going on, so stops are obvious. Its not particularly expensive based upon earnings - it trades at 14.5 P/E. However the issue here is the sustainability of that earning stream, we have top line growth estimated to be 24%, 16%, 18% over each of the next 3 years, and EPS YoY growth of 21%, 17%, 18%, so no margin compression or anything. Over that period, I struggle to believe this will occur given the competition in those market places, without some serious innovations, and as discussed before they are at the peak of their product cycle. Nothing is new now, only incremental improvements, so the competition will catch up, but probably not just yet. The stock should blow off in the interim. Right now there is nothing to get too bearish about valuation wise and suspect a great buying opportunity is about to present itself. It should be accompanied by some blow out earnings, and excitement over the latest product that will give it some froth (e.g. mini ipad). Its the most important stock to watch because when it does go it will take the market with it.     Trader X posted this 2 weeks ago (Sep 24, 2012 2:30 PM). View chart   AAPL is displaying a very nice completed count from the summer lows with negative divergence in the daily RSI. if im right, a retrace is in order and the support levels to look at are the 50% ($616) and the 76.4% ($596) as they align with minor waves 1&2. chart and potential scenario are attached

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